Risk Disclosure

1. Trading risk

Trading financial instruments — crypto assets and perpetual futures, FX, commodities, indices and equities — carries a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Prices move violently on news, gaps happen outside your reach, and stop orders are not guaranteed to fill at the level you set.

• Leverage multiplies losses as fast as gains. On perpetual futures a modest adverse move can liquidate a position entirely.
• Funding rates, fees, spreads and slippage are real costs that no illustration on this site includes.
• Crypto markets trade continuously, are largely unregulated in many jurisdictions, and venue risk (an exchange failing, freezing withdrawals or delisting) is a real component of your risk.
• Never trade money you cannot afford to lose, and never size a position on the assumption that a level shown here will hold.

2. This is not advice, and it is not personal

Forecandle also earns affiliate commission when you open an exchange account through a referral link on this site. That is disclosed in visible text beside every such link. It does not influence what the engine outputs, and a referral link is a link to a market — not a recommendation to trade it.

3. What a signal actually is

A signal is a model output. A language model reads the current market context and proposes a direction, an entry, a target and a stop; deterministic code then checks it — rejecting wrong-side stops, requiring the entry to sit within a tolerance of the live price, recomputing position size and clamping leverage — before anything is published. That pipeline improves internal consistency. It does not make the call correct.

• Levels are illustrative parameters of a hypothetical trade, not instructions and not orders.
• No capital is deployed. Nothing shown reflects a real account or a real fill.
• Signals expire. Many expire without ever touching the target or the stop.
• Signal generation depends on data availability and on an AI budget; when either runs out, the engine degrades or falls silent rather than guessing.

4. What the track record measures — and what it excludes

The public ledger on the signals pageis a measured history of a published model's calls scored against subsequent price data. It exists because this category is full of unverifiable claims, and we would rather show a small honest number than a large invented one. Read it with these conditions in mind:

• Measured history is not a performance promise. Past and observed behaviour does not predict future results, and no result here is an indication of what you would have made.
• The verified win rate is target-hit divided by (target-hit plus stop-hit). Signals that expired without touching either level are not in that denominator, and today they are a large share of all signals. The expiry count is always shown next to the rate.
• The shadow ledger scores every directional signal against the candles that followed it, including the ones nobody traded. It only reaches a verdict where we hold price data fine enough to walk: assets for which we only have daily candles (FX, metals, indices, equities) resolve as "thin data" and are excluded from the rate, so the rate is effectively crypto-only today.
• Where a single candle spans both target and stop, the fill order is unknowable and we score it as a stop. The number can therefore be understated, never flattered.
• Scoring assumes instant fills at the stated level with no fees, no slippage, no funding and no partial exits. A real account would have done worse.
• Sample sizes are small and early. A rate over a handful of decided calls is noise; we publish the n next to every rate so you can judge it yourself.
• Entries are never deleted. The ledger keeps losers, expiries and embarrassments.

5. Which surfaces are modelled, not measured

Some panels are direct measurements of exchange data: realised liquidations come from the venues' own forced-order streams, funding and open interest from their public endpoints, prediction-market odds from the venues' APIs.

The liquidation heatmap is a model. Positions data of that kind is not published by exchanges, so the field is derived: 15-minute candle volume is treated as positions opened at the close, split evenly long and short, spread across a fixed 5x-100x leverage prior, and liquidated at 90% margin consumption. It uses no open-interest input at all, ignores position closes and cross-margin, and inherits any gaps in the candle feed. Read it as relative concentration of potential forced flow, never as dollar amounts, and never as exchange-reported liquidations. The panel itself carries that note permanently.

6. The limits of the models

Language models mis-read headlines, miss sarcasm, over-weight loud sources and can state a wrong fact confidently. Impact scores, clustering, briefings and signal reasoning are all produced this way. Deterministic guardrails and heuristic fallbacks reduce the blast radius; they do not eliminate the failure mode. Treat every AI-generated line as a starting point for your own check, especially before risking money on it.

7. Data quality and outages

Feeds break. Venues change APIs without notice, rate-limit us, or return well-formed responses with useless contents — one prediction-market connector is self-disabled for exactly that reason. When a source degrades, panels show a degraded state rather than inventing a number, but delayed, stale or missing data can still reach the screen. Nothing here is a substitute for your exchange's own order book, and nothing here should be your only source of truth in a fast market.

8. If you consume Forecandle through the API

The public API returns the same signal levels as clean JSON, which is exactly the form in which caveats get lost. Every response therefore carries this notice in a disclaimer field and on the X-Forecandle-Disclaimer response header, and the Terms require you to display it wherever you display our data. If you build a product on Forecandle data, your end users are your responsibility: we have no relationship with them, know nothing about them, and give them no advice through you.

9. Your jurisdiction, your responsibility

Forecandle is published from the European Union and is available broadly; that is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful. Products such as crypto perpetual futures are restricted or prohibited for retail traders in several countries. Checking what you are allowed to trade, and what tax follows, is your responsibility. See also the Terms of Service and the Privacy Policy.